This has resulted in that we have seen a new 'Rally' at the end of the week at the intersections of the Dollar, Yen and Swiss franc. By highlighting any cross, indicating the weakness of the Euro-dollar has drilled down the bullish short-term guideline.
The macro of the week quotes have been decisive and as almost always the U.S. data have been more decisive. We note the very negative manufacturing index figures prepared by the Philadelphia Fed. This indicator along with others who have known from other regions and the actual manufacturing ISM came out earlier this month tell us that the current U.S. inventory cycle would be coming to an end. The manufacturing sector has been instrumental in the recovery from the nadir it reached the U.S. economy in successive quarters to the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. After the sharp drop in industrial production and inventories, companies had to begin to produce new and increased their 'stock'.
Another sector that is raising its head housing. Data from initial construction in the U.S. in July were worse than expected and building permits were up to minimum over a year.
The weekly leading indicator figures prepared by the prestigious Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) show us clearly that the U.S. economy would return to the field of recession. This suggests to many, including those of us that each day is more likely that a relapse into recession or 'double dip' in the American economy.
But not all bad news coming from the U.S.. Industrial production, on the one hand, and budgetary information, on the other, are encouraging. The first was above than expected with a monthly reading of 1% when it was expected an increase of 0.5%. In annual production increases by 7.7%. The trouble is that this indicator is late and the PMIs suggest that anger out of steam in the coming quarters.
Also like the market the news that the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) in the U.S. in 2011 foresees a deficit of approximately $ 1.07 billion would reach 7% of GDP from 9% in 2010 and 9.9% of 2009. If it appears that the fiscal consolidation process underway in USA. This removed the fear of investors who fear a debt problem on a large scale in the U.S.. In recent times, speaks strongly for the existence of a debt bubble ...
Currency trading on Wednesday passed a lateral move, as the dollar and the euro - dollar exchange rate on the day amounted to 30.2385 rubles, having lost about 0,15 penny. The euro exchange rate at the Unified Trading Session fell 1.9 cent to $ 39.3060 on the day. During the day, either in euro or a dollar there has been no price bursts, and were assigned current local support - for Euro 39,3 rubles., 30.2 rubles to the dollar. In currency trading in the calculations "tomorrow" euro rose slightly against the closure on Tuesday, adding to the total days 0,5 dime. Dollar also rose 6.48 cent, to close at a mark 30.2598 rbl. Currency basket was closed on a mark 34.3279 rbl., Resulting entrenched at 3.79 kopeks.
In bidding for a pair of euro / dollar in the FOREX market yesterday continued lateral dynamics. The key level for such movement remains a mark of $ 1,3, trading range is placed between the levels of $ 1,297 and $ 1,304. Closing took place yesterday at $ 1.2979. To date, we can observe the trades for the currency pair at $ 1,301. From the opening day of the currency pair was under the key level of $ 1,3, then started to grow.
Perhaps in today's auction, we can see yet another volatile session, with the achievement of local resistance in the $ 1,304, and with a reverse roll back down. However, we do not exclude the probability of a breakthrough of the local resistance and output to levels of $ 1,31-1,32. From the macroeconomic statistics, we expect today publication of data on unemployment in Germany in July, as well as the number of applications for unemployment benefits with the U.S. for a week until July 24.
Apparently, optimism in the market, the surge which took place in the beginning of active trading in Europe, was associated with the meeting of the Federal Reserve System (FRS) the USA, which will be held next week. The U.S. central bank will consider options to adjust the existing economic policy in order to accelerate the recovery process. Market participants believe that the Federal Reserve may proceed with the purchase of government bonds in order to further stimulate the economy.
"Obviously, for example, that the euro at a given time due to a greater extent by the fact that economic recovery in Europe is faster than in the U.S." - analysts say.
From a technical point of view, the euro reached a sophisticated level of resistance above which the currency to gain a foothold on the first try failed. And if July 27 was another attempt to consolidate the euro above 1.3 dollars per euro will fail, "bears" are satisfied revenge. The figure of "double top" will be a long press on quotes euros.
Thus, the euro / dollar has reached an important point: if the game will continue to increase, the single currency will rise up to the mark of 1.5 dollars / euros, but if the sellers will win a local victory, then we can expect the formation of figures "double bottom" level 1,19 USD / EUR. But do not forget that all these global changes occur in the "thin" market, where trading volumes could be better. And increasing it in the next month is not expected. Market forces have nowhere to take for a new and powerful movement.
Period of weakening U.S. currency, it seems, began to wane. The players are winding up operations Sarry trade against the dollar, and as it enhance their profitability will decline, that will encourage more aggressive strengthening currency. Of course, the growth of the dollar will not take place overnight. This currency pairs will require a period of consolidation at current levels, which may last from weeks to months.
Most likely, in the next month markets continue to be in the side band at that level. But with the advent of the new fiscal year (in September) will be set powerful trends in the purchase of American currency, especially as the summer risky currencies have gained the potential to decrease.
The reason for the strengthening of "American" can find a lot. Macro-economic statistics of the U.S. inevitably begin to improve, and the debt problem in the euro area can regain its footing. To all this can add problems of overheating in China and India. And then the financial world is once again begins to shake. Most players would rush to buy new, old and reliable US Treasuries, by way of raising the rate of U.S. currency.
For example in the market for euro / dollar euro was unable to take a key level - a mark 1,32 dollars / euros. This is a complex technical resistance, and the players are at this level, a significant number of option contracts, which indicates the confidence of participants in the integrity of this level in the coming months.
The technical picture of the chart the dollar / pound is also evidence of significant oversold "American." Despite the fact that the British pound went up to the complex level of 1.6 dollars per pound, lay the groundwork for improving the British currency remains. Downtrend line is about a mark 1,64 dollars per pound. Nevertheless, "bears" are unlikely without a fight will pass mark of $ 1,6 / lb. There has been a key approach to a complex level of 85.4 and a couple of yen-dollar.
Thus, the market situation where to continue to reduce the dollar will need to take the key marks in several pairs. And provided that the current market "thin", and players on it a bit by selling such complex barriers will be very difficult. Especially when you consider that many large players open options positions at levels achieved during the summer in the spring, when the liquidity of the sites was much higher.
The smooth recovery in the construction part, due to the resumption of lending to legal entities, as well as the sharp drop in production in construction in 2009 (-48.2%). Noted Nikolay Ivchenko, the head of information-analytical center FOREX CLUB in Ukraine.
As the Liga in the press service center, the volume of construction up to 2010 is unlikely to show positive dynamics. This area is still a risky investment. Complete growth in this industry will only begin in the second half of 2011, when the restore growth main branches of the Ukrainian economy and lower interest rates on mortgage loans in UAH to 15%
