Cierre FOREX semanal: EEUU se constipa y Japón estornuda

The week has just been marked by continuity of fear after the recent rise in risk aversion. Risky assets in FOREX, Stock and Commodities have fallen with less noise than last week but have suffered heavy blows, especially in the session on Thursday and Friday. While fixed-income assets have acted as a refuge value. The German Bund has reached a new record high and continues to climb free.
This has resulted in that we have seen a new 'Rally' at the end of the week at the intersections of the Dollar, Yen and Swiss franc. By highlighting any cross, indicating the weakness of the Euro-dollar has drilled down the bullish short-term guideline.
The macro of the week quotes have been decisive and as almost always the U.S. data have been more decisive. We note the very negative manufacturing index figures prepared by the Philadelphia Fed. This indicator along with others who have known from other regions and the actual manufacturing ISM came out earlier this month tell us that the current U.S. inventory cycle would be coming to an end. The manufacturing sector has been instrumental in the recovery from the nadir it reached the U.S. economy in successive quarters to the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. After the sharp drop in industrial production and inventories, companies had to begin to produce new and increased their 'stock'.
Another sector that is raising its head housing. Data from initial construction in the U.S. in July were worse than expected and building permits were up to minimum over a year.
The weekly leading indicator figures prepared by the prestigious Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) show us clearly that the U.S. economy would return to the field of recession. This suggests to many, including those of us that each day is more likely that a relapse into recession or 'double dip' in the American economy.
But not all bad news coming from the U.S.. Industrial production, on the one hand, and budgetary information, on the other, are encouraging. The first was above than expected with a monthly reading of 1% when it was expected an increase of 0.5%. In annual production increases by 7.7%. The trouble is that this indicator is late and the PMIs suggest that anger out of steam in the coming quarters.
Also like the market the news that the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) in the U.S. in 2011 foresees a deficit of approximately $ 1.07 billion would reach 7% of GDP from 9% in 2010 and 9.9% of 2009. If it appears that the fiscal consolidation process underway in USA. This removed the fear of investors who fear a debt problem on a large scale in the U.S.. In recent times, speaks strongly for the existence of a debt bubble ...